The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% on July 29, but three voting members dissented in favor of a hike, and the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sat at 6.67% the same day. That split vote, combined with oil prices pushing back above $100 a barrel on Middle East supply fears, means rates are more likely to drift up than down heading into fall, and Western North Dakota buyers and sellers should plan around that instead of waiting for relief.
Did the Fed raise interest rates in July 2026?
No. The Federal Open Market Committee left its target rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% at Wednesday's meeting, the fifth consecutive meeting the Fed has held steady. On the surface that reads as no news. It is not.
Three of the twelve voting members dissented and pushed for a hike instead. That is a real split inside the room that sets policy for every mortgage, business loan, and construction line of credit in the country, including the ones financing property here in Williston and Watford City. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has also said he plans to offer less forward guidance than his predecessors, which means the market is reading tea leaves instead of getting a clear signal about what comes next.
I have been through enough rate cycles now, license held since 2015, through the boom and the slowdown both, to know that a unanimous hold and a split hold are two very different messages. A unanimous hold says "we are comfortable." A hold with three dissents says "we are watching something closely and it could go either way." That is the message here, and it changes how I am advising clients this week versus last month.
Why does a split Fed vote matter more than the vote itself?
The dissent is not the interesting part on its own. The reason behind it is. Oil prices have climbed back above $100 a barrel on renewed Middle East supply shocks tied to the Iran conflict, and that is keeping inflation stickier than the Fed would like. When energy costs stay elevated, the case for holding or even raising rates gets stronger, and the case for a cut gets weaker.
Bankrate's weekly panel of mortgage experts is genuinely split on where rates go next: half expect rates to rise further, roughly a third expect them to hold, and only a fifth expect a drop. Several point directly to the same cause, oil and inflation pressure tied to the widening conflict overseas, as the reason they expect the September meeting to be the real test of whether a hike is coming.
If you have been waiting for mortgage rates to fall before you buy, the honest read right now is that more experts expect rates to go up over the next several weeks than down. Waiting is not free. It has a real cost if the number you are waiting for moves the wrong direction.
How does rising oil affect Western North Dakota differently than the rest of the country?
Here is where our market gets interesting, and where a purely national story stops being enough. I wrote last week about North Dakota crude briefly selling at a premium to the national benchmark for the first time in 40 years, and I was clear that the spike itself is not a reason to change your buying decision. That still holds. But the same Iran conflict driving that oil premium is also the reason mortgage rates are drifting up nationally, and that combination cuts two different ways depending on what you own or want to own here.
For a homeowner or a buyer, higher mortgage rates are a straightforward affordability headwind, the same as anywhere else in the country. For an investor eyeing a rental property or a small apartment building, or an operator who needs industrial space or a shop, elevated energy prices can mean steadier local demand for space even while borrowing costs climb, because a healthier Bakken economy supports rents and occupancy. For a land buyer, the calculation is longer-term and less sensitive to a few weeks of rate noise either way.
Running the number one eXp team in North Dakota has mostly taught me that clients remember the honest call, not the easy one. The honest call today is that Western North Dakota is not immune to national rate pressure, but it is also not purely at its mercy the way a market with no underlying economic engine would be. Oil pushing prices up hurts your rate and helps your local economy in the same breath. Plan for both.
Do not assume a national headline about rising rates applies to Williston and Watford City exactly the way it applies to a market with no local economic driver. Ask what it means for your specific property type, residential, rental, commercial, or land, because the answer is genuinely different for each.
What should I actually do right now if I'm buying, selling, or investing here?
If you are buying, get pre-approved and lock in a rate conversation with your lender now rather than after the September Fed meeting. A Bankrate panelist this week pointed to the 10-year Treasury hitting its highest level since January 2025 as a sign mortgage rates could climb further before they ease, and I would rather my clients have a locked number in hand than be chasing a moving target.
If you are selling, do not panic about a slower fall market. Homes here have still been moving, and a diversified local economy plus steady state revenue from oil taxes, the same revenue I wrote about last week, supports the kind of buyer demand that keeps a market from stalling out the way a purely rate-sensitive market might.
If you are an investor or a commercial or industrial buyer, this is exactly the environment where the discipline I described last week matters most, underwrite on steady occupancy and normal operations, not on a rate forecast or an oil headline. Our Crexi Platinum Broker recognition and Institutional Investment Services certification exist because this is the exact kind of environment where a careful underwrite separates a good deal from a regretted one.
If you are looking at land or acreage, rate swings over a few weeks matter far less to you than they do to a homebuyer financing at today's number. Keep thinking in years and infrastructure, not headlines.
Fed rates and mortgage rates in Western North Dakota, answered plainly
Did the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in July 2026?
No. The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75% on July 29, the fifth straight meeting without a change. Three voting members did dissent in favor of a hike, which is why the hold does not mean rates are settled.
Why did some Fed members want to raise rates instead of holding steady?
Oil prices climbing back above $100 a barrel on Middle East supply concerns tied to the Iran conflict have kept inflation elevated. Members who dissented are more worried about that stickier inflation than about slowing the economy further.
Will mortgage rates go up or down for the rest of 2026?
No one knows for certain, but the expert consensus currently leans toward higher rates in the near term. Bankrate's panel of mortgage experts this week was split 50% expecting rates to rise, 30% expecting them to hold, and 20% expecting a drop, with the September Fed meeting flagged as the next real test.
Is now a good time to buy property in Williston or Watford City?
It can be, if your timeline is long enough and you qualify on your real, steady income rather than hoping rates drop first. Waiting for a rate cut that more experts expect to not happen soon has a real cost, especially in a market where local demand is not purely rate-driven.
Should I wait to sell my house until mortgage rates come down?
I would not build a selling timeline around a rate forecast that even the experts cannot agree on. A diversified local economy and steady buyer demand have kept this market moving through rate uncertainty before, and there is no clear signal that a lower-rate window is coming this fall.
How does rising oil affect mortgage rates and the local housing market at the same time?
Rising oil prices feed inflation, which pushes the Fed toward holding or raising rates, which raises mortgage rates nationally. At the same time, rising oil prices support North Dakota's state revenue and local economy, which can support property demand here even as national affordability tightens elsewhere.
Where can I check current mortgage rates before making a decision?
Check a current national survey like Bankrate's mortgage rate comparison and talk to a local lender about what you actually qualify for, since national averages and your specific rate can differ based on credit, down payment, and loan type. North Dakota buyers should also ask about first-time and rural programs through the North Dakota Housing Finance Agency.
The Fed did not move rates this week, but the vote inside the room and the oil headlines outside it both point the same direction, and it is not toward relief anytime soon. That does not mean freeze. It means plan on today's numbers, not next quarter's hope, whether you are buying your first home, selling into a market that is still moving, or underwriting a rental, a commercial building, or a piece of land.
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