Williston, North Dakota | September 2026 | From the desk of Erik Peterson
August closed as the strongest month our team has recorded in five years, and it happened in a higher rate market than the one that set our old record. That is this fall in one sentence: nothing got easier, and people bought anyway.
Inventory is up across Williston and Watford City, which hands buyers real choice and real negotiating room. My read is that the window closes with the first snow, not with the calendar year.
I write this letter every month to tell you what I am actually seeing, not what would be convenient for me to say. There are three things in it worth your time: where the month left us, what Saturday at the shop condos told me, and what rising inventory actually means for you.
The month
Where August left us
More than 30 pending transactions. More than $25,000,000 in pending sales volume. The strongest month by that measure in five years.
More than 30 open files is more than 30 families and businesses moving, not 30 line items on a report. We are on pace to help more of them this year than in any year we have been open, and we are doing it at rates nobody asked for. That is the part I am proud of.
The market did not get easier this year. It got clearer. When rates were low, almost anything penciled out. Now a deal has to actually make sense, and the buyers who sit down and run their real numbers are the ones walking away with the better terms.
Inventory
Why does more inventory help you instead of hurting you?
You will hear that inventory is up and read it as pressure to hurry. I am not going to sell it to you that way, because that is not what more inventory means. It means the property you tour this weekend has competition three streets over, and the seller knows it.
Two years ago, a buyer who asked for a repair credit risked losing the property to someone who would not ask. That is not the position sellers are in this fall. Inspection requests land differently now. Concessions land differently. The same ask that would have ended a negotiation in 2024 gets you a counter instead of a no.
None of that is unique to houses. The same shift is showing up in commercial buildings, industrial and shop space, and land across Williston and the surrounding Williams and McKenzie County market.
I have been licensed here since 2015, which means I have sold through the boom and through the slowdown. The buyers who do best are never the ones who timed the market perfectly. They are the ones who bought while they still had choices.
What this means for you
More inventory gives you negotiating room, not a reason to panic. Tour more than one property before you write an offer, and use that comparison as leverage when you do.
The calendar
How long does the extra selection last in western North Dakota?
Here is the honest part. Inventory here does not stay elevated through the fall. Listings that do not move get pulled before the snow. Sellers who were flexible in September decide by November that they would rather wait for spring, and once a seller has made that decision, the flexibility is gone until April.
After more than 1,400 closings in this market, that seasonal pattern is the one I trust more than any forecast. It is not a scare tactic. It is a calendar.
What this means for you
If selection matters to you, the next several weeks are the widest the field gets this year. Waiting until November trades choice for a thinner market and a more stubborn seller.
Shop condos
What Saturday at 313 60th Ave W told me
We opened the doors on Saturday, August 29 for shop tours, lunch, and a raffle. Thank you to everyone who came out, and to Jerry Schauer and the Schauer Construction crew for building something this market actually needed.
Four units are now under contract. That happened faster than we projected, and it tells you what demand for owned shop space in Williston looks like right now. If you missed Saturday, here is what you walked past:
- 1,500 to 2,280 square feet
- 14 foot and taller overhead doors, 16 foot sidewalls
- Heat and air conditioning
- Three-quarter bath with shower, hot and cold water, 50 gallon water heater
- Floor drain, storage closet, 5K LED lighting, ceiling fan
- Sheetrocked and painted interior
- One year builder warranty from Schauer Construction
Pricing starts at $225 per square foot. Comparable shop space in this market leases at $16 to $20 per square foot per year plus NNN. If you are writing a rent check on shop space, set those two numbers side by side before the next phase prices out. Units are still available and I will walk you through one any day this week at 701-713-5678.
I carry the 2024 Crexi Platinum Broker designation and Institutional Investment Services certification because commercial and industrial work is not a sideline here. Owner-users, investors, and land buyers are all working the same market as residential buyers this fall, on the same seasonal clock.
What this means for you
If your business leases shop or industrial space, run your annual lease cost against a purchase price before the next phase is released. Ownership changes both the monthly math and what sits on your balance sheet.
Rates
Should you wait for lower rates before you buy here?
My honest answer: run the payment, not the headline. A higher rate on the right property still beats the right rate on a property you settled for, because you can refinance a rate and you cannot refinance a house. Watching Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey is useful context, but it will never tell you what your payment looks like on a specific address.
That is not the same as saying everyone should buy now. Waiting or renting is the right call when your job here is not settled, when you are likely to move within two or three years, or when buying would leave you with no reserves. I would rather tell you that than sell you a house.
Cami Hinz at Heartland Mortgage can put real numbers in front of you before you tour anything, and first-time buyers should look at what the North Dakota Housing Finance Agency offers on down payment assistance. If you are open to it, an assumable loan is sometimes the shortcut around today's rate, which is why we built ProvenAssumptions.com to search for them in North Dakota.
The refinance option is the part buyers forget. Your rate is a contract you can renegotiate later. Your address is not.
If you are selling
What more competition changes for sellers this fall
Your pricing window narrowed. You have more competition than you did in June, and the first two weeks on market matter more this fall than they have all year. Priced correctly, you get showings while buyers still have urgency. Priced high, you spend those two weeks teaching the market to skip you, then chase the price down into a thinner November.
What this means for you
Get the price right in the first two weeks. In this season an aggressive list price does not buy you room to negotiate, it buys you days on market.
Questions I got this month
What people have been asking me about this fall
Is inventory really up in Williston right now?
Yes. There is more to choose from across Williston and Watford City than there was in June, in residential and in commercial and shop space. It is not a flood of listings, but buyers can feel the difference when they tour.
What does rising inventory mean for buyers in Williston?
It means leverage. When a seller knows there are comparable properties nearby, inspection requests and concession asks get taken seriously instead of dismissed. You also get time to compare two or three real options rather than writing on the only thing available.
How long will the extra selection last?
Weeks, not months. Listings that have not sold get pulled before the snow, and sellers who were flexible in September usually decide by November to wait for spring instead. In western North Dakota the fall slowdown is predictable enough to plan around.
Are the Williston shop condos a better deal than leasing shop space?
For a lot of operators, yes, and the comparison is straightforward. Units at 313 60th Ave W start at $225 per square foot to own, while comparable shop space in this market leases at $16 to $20 per square foot per year plus NNN. Run your own lease cost against a purchase before you renew.
Should I wait for rates to drop before buying in Williston or Watford City?
Run the payment on a specific property before you decide. Rates are refinanceable and houses are not, so a good property at today's rate often beats a compromise property at a better rate later. If the payment does not work, that is a real answer and you should hear it.
What should I do first if I want to buy before the end of the year?
Get a real pre-approval so you know your actual payment, then get out and tour. Cami Hinz at Heartland Mortgage can handle the first part quickly. From pre-approval to keys is usually a matter of weeks here, so a September start sits comfortably inside a year-end close.
That is the month. The reason to move this fall is selection and negotiating room, not scarcity, and I am not going to tell you to hurry for the sake of hurrying.
Tell me what you are trying to accomplish before the end of the year and I will give you a straight answer on whether the timing works, including when it does not. I will write again in October.
EP
Erik Peterson, Broker/Owner
Proven Realty brokered by eXp
701-369-3949 | Erik@ProvenRealtyND.com
ND Real Estate License #9328
Want a straight read on your own timing?
Send me what you are trying to do and I will tell you where you stand, whether that is a house in Williston, a shop unit, or a piece of land.
Transaction counts and sales volume reflect Proven Realty internal data as of September 1, 2026, and are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Shop condo pricing and specifications are provided by Schauer Construction and are subject to change. Nothing here is a commitment to lend or an offer of credit. Verify specifics before acting. Equal Housing Opportunity.
