From the Desk of Erik Peterson

Let me be straight with you: this is good news.

I know when oil prices drop, some of you feel a little uneasy. That reaction makes total sense given our history here. But I want to give you a different frame for what happened this weekend, because I think when you see the full picture, you are going to agree with me that the US-Iran peace deal is a net positive for our community and our market.

Over the weekend, the United States and Iran reached a peace agreement, officially ending four months of active military conflict that had shut down the Strait of Hormuz and choked global oil supply. Pakistan brokered the deal. President Trump confirmed it on June 15. The formal signing takes place this Friday in Switzerland. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries nearly one-fifth of the world's oil, is already being reopened.

That is historic. And it matters to every one of us living and working in the Bakken.

Understanding the Numbers

Yes, oil dropped. Here's why that doesn't scare me.

Markets moved immediately. WTI crude is sitting at $75.10 today, down sharply from the $90-plus levels we saw during the height of the conflict. That decline represents the war premium leaving the market. Global traders had been paying extra for oil because of the risk and scarcity that came with a closed Strait of Hormuz. Now that the lane is reopening, that premium is being priced out.

"There is a significant difference between oil falling because of a peace deal and oil falling because an economy is collapsing. These are not the same thing. Not even close."

Iran is expected to gradually restore its production, potentially adding around one million barrels per day within months. Most analysts are projecting WTI to stabilize in the $75 to $85 range. That is not a crisis level for the Bakken. Operators have gotten dramatically more efficient over the past decade. Extended horizontal wells now drill three to four miles underground, dramatically improving economics per well. The industry running at $75 to $80 oil today is a fundamentally different animal than the industry we saw at $60 oil in early 2026.

I am also watching something far more important to our real estate market, and I do not think enough people are talking about it yet.

The Bigger Opportunity

Lower oil prices mean lower inflation. Lower inflation means lower interest rates.

This is the part that I am genuinely excited about for buyers in our market.

Energy costs flow through everything. When oil is expensive, freight is expensive, food is expensive, manufacturing is expensive. Inflation stays high, and the Federal Reserve keeps rates elevated to fight it. High mortgage rates have been one of the single biggest brakes on housing affordability across the country for the past two years.

When oil comes down in a stable, peace-driven way, inflationary pressure starts to ease. The Fed gets more flexibility. Mortgage rates follow. The difference between a 7% rate and a 6% rate on a $300,000 home is roughly $200 a month in payment. That is real money. That is the difference between a buyer who can afford a house and a buyer who cannot.

We are not going to see that change overnight. But over the next 90 days, I will be watching the rate environment very closely, because I believe the conditions are setting up for meaningful improvement in housing affordability. And when affordability improves in a market that already has tight inventory and strong demand, the people who positioned themselves early are going to look very smart.

On the Ground Right Now

I need to tell you what we are actually seeing out here, because it's important context.

While the macro headlines have been noisy, our local market has been absolutely active. I mean genuinely, surprisingly active.

We are seeing 14 to 20 people coming through our open houses. That is not a slow market. That is a market with people who want to buy. Showings are strong across the board, and we have homes going under contract in competitive situations, with multiple offers and properties selling over asking price.

14 to 20 visitors per open house. Competitive offers landing above list price. Inventory tight across Williston and Watford City.

I say this not to hype the market, but because I want you to have accurate information. There is a gap between what people assume is happening in an oil-dependent market when prices slip and what is actually happening. The Williston basin communities are real, established places now. Our healthcare is here. Our schools are here. Our infrastructure and economic diversity have depth that simply did not exist during the 2012 boom years. Demand from permanent residents, long-term workers, and people genuinely choosing to build a life here is real and it is sustained.

What This Means For You

My read by situation:

If You're Selling: Do not panic. Your timing may actually be stronger than you think. Inventory is tight, buyers are active, and the peace deal removes geopolitical uncertainty that was making some people hesitate. Stability is a selling condition, not a warning sign.

If You're Buying: Watch the next 90 days carefully. A rate window could be opening. Easing inflation from lower oil prices gives the Fed room to move. If rates soften this fall and you waited, you may be competing harder for the same homes you could act on now.

If You're Investing: Rental demand from stable-employment workers remains a real thesis. The Bakken does not need $90 oil to sustain our communities. Long-term rental demand from healthcare, education, and municipal workers is not oil-dependent. That story is intact.

The Bottom Line

We have been through $30 oil. We have been through $90 oil. I know this market.

I have negotiated over $400 million in Bakken real estate across more than 1,600 closed transactions. I have seen this market at its lowest and at its most frenzied. And I will tell you this honestly: what I see right now is not a market in trouble. It is a market in transition, moving from an uncertainty-driven spike to a more stable, fundamentals-driven floor.

Stable is good. Stable is actually better for long-term owners, for buyers trying to plan, and for the broader western North Dakota community than volatile is. A peace deal that removes war risk from global energy markets, eases inflation, opens the door to lower interest rates, and reestablishes predictability in the global economy is not bad news for our people. It is good news, even if it takes a few months to fully show up in your monthly mortgage payment.

I wanted to write this to you directly because I think you deserve a straight read from someone who is boots-on-the-ground here every single day, not just watching a ticker from somewhere else. This is my community too. And I am optimistic about where we are headed.

Erik Peterson
Founder & Broker, Proven Realty | Brokered by eXp Realty
(701) 369-3949 | Erik@ProvenRealtyND.com

As always, if you have questions about what this means for your specific situation in Williston, Watford City, Dickinson, or anywhere across our region, my door is open. That is what we are here for.