Updated October 2026
The Bakken Read · Williston, ND · October 6, 2026
September 2026 gave Western North Dakota real estate two signals pulling in opposite directions: the Fed raised rates and the 30-year fixed hit 7.28%, a three-year high, while oil crossed $100 and the Bakken added 5 rigs in a single week for the first time since 2016. Higher rates are slowing sales nationally, not cutting prices, and North Dakota now has a record 20,072 producing wells. My advice to anyone buying, selling or investing here this fall: buy on your base, not on the barrel.
Every month I write down what moved in our market and what I would actually do about it. This is the October letter. If you were waiting on the Fed to cut rates this fall, I have to be straight with you. They did the opposite.
September was a rate-and-oil month. Here is the whole month in one table, then each piece and what it means for anyone who owns, or wants to own, property in Williston, Watford City and the rest of the Bakken.
| What moved | The number |
|---|---|
| Fed funds rate | 3.75% to 4.00% (raised Sept 16) |
| 30-year fixed | 7.28% (Oct 1), up from 6.34% a year ago |
| WTI crude | $95 on Sept 9, $90.35 on Oct 5 |
| North Dakota rigs | 35 active, vs 23 in May |
| ND oil production | 1,156,641 barrels per day (July) |
| ND producing wells | 20,072, an all-time high |
Why did the Fed raise rates in September 2026 instead of cutting?
On September 16 the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 0.25%, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. The vote was unanimous. Inflation is running at 3.4%, and energy is a big part of the reason: diesel hit a record $5.94 a gallon in early September. Anyone running trucks out of a Williston shop felt that before the Fed said a word.
The part that matters for next year: 16 of 18 Fed officials expect one more hike in 2026. The "rates will come down soon" plan is not a plan right now.
Stop planning around a rate cut. Plan around the payment you can carry today, and check any variable-rate debt you hold against one more hike.
How much more does a 7.28% mortgage rate cost than last year?
Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average hit 7.28% on October 1, up from 7.03% the week before and 6.34% a year ago. Mortgage applications fell 6% in a single week.
On a $300,000 loan, that one-year move is $187.89 more per month in principal and interest, or $2,254.67 a year. Same property, same buyer. I walked a buyer through that exact math last week, and it changed the price range she was shopping, not her decision to buy.
Here is the piece most headlines skip. Existing-home sales slipped to a 3.98 million annual pace in August, but the national median held at $429,100 and the Midwest median rose 3.3% to $340,400. Higher rates are slowing sales, not lowering prices. I wrote more about where this year's rates came from in my mortgage rates in 2026 post.
Buyers: waiting for prices to fall is not what the data shows. Sellers: buyers are more payment sensitive, so price and condition matter more than they did a year ago.
Some sellers here have FHA or VA loans at 3% to 4% that a qualified buyer can take over. On $300,000, a 3.25% rate is $1,305.62 a month versus $2,052.64 at 7.28%. Search assumable listings in western North Dakota on ProvenAssumptions.com and see which ones fit your price range right now.
Is the Bakken boom coming back now that oil is over $100?
WTI hit $95 on September 9 and Brent passed $100 as the conflict with Iran escalated. The Bakken responded fast. In the week of September 11, the Williston Basin added 5 rigs, its first 5-rig weekly gain since 2016. North Dakota has 35 active rigs today, up from 23 in May.
I know the question this raises, because I get it every week at Proven Realty: is the boom coming back? Investors ask it about rentals. Operators ask it about shop and yard space. Landowners ask it about acreage.
More rigs mean more crews looking for housing and more operators looking for space, which helps rentals and industrial property first. Underwrite any deal at today's rents, not boom rents.
What does a record 20,072 producing wells mean for North Dakota property?
If you remember one number from this letter, make it this one. According to the ND Department of Mineral Resources Director's Cut, North Dakota now has 20,072 producing wells, an all-time high. Production ran 1,156,641 barrels per day in July, 5.15% above the state's revenue forecast. Laterals are longer than they have ever been.
That is the base. It was there when oil was $57 and it is there at $90. Producing wells need people, service companies, shops and housing whether crude is having a good week or not. That steady demand is a big part of what is driving North Dakota property prices, and it is why I keep telling buyers and investors that western North Dakota demand does not live and die on the price of a barrel anymore.
The case for owning here rests on production and well count, not price spikes. That makes a carefully bought property in Williston or Watford City a steadier hold than the oil headlines suggest.
How are buyers still winning with mortgage rates at 7%?
The buyers closing with Proven Realty right now are not waiting. They are getting creative:
- Assumable loans. Taking over a seller's 3% to 4% FHA or VA loan, as in the Go Deeper example above.
- Builder incentives. 66% of builders are offering incentives, the highest share since December, and 38% have cut prices.
- Adjustable-rate loans. ARMs are 10.3% of applications, the highest since October 2025.
If you are buying this fall, pick your strategy before you pick the property. If you are new to the process here, start with how to buy a property in North Dakota.
October 2026 Bakken real estate FAQ
Will mortgage rates go down before the end of 2026?
Not on the Fed's current path. Officials raised rates in September and 16 of 18 expect one more hike this year, so a meaningful drop before year end is unlikely. Plan around today's rate and refinance later if it falls.
Does a Fed rate hike raise my mortgage rate?
Not directly. Fixed mortgage rates follow bond markets, while a Fed hike moves credit cards, HELOCs and variable-rate loans first. Both moved up together this fall, with the 30-year fixed at 7.28% on October 1.
Is oil over $100 good for Williston real estate?
In the short run it adds rigs and crews, which helps rental and industrial demand. But war-driven prices can reverse quickly, as they did in June when crude fell below $70. The steadier signal is the record well count, not the price.
How many rigs are running in North Dakota right now?
North Dakota has 35 active rigs, up from 23 in May. The Williston Basin added 5 in the week of September 11, its first 5-rig weekly gain since 2016.
Are home prices falling because of high rates?
No. Sales are slowing, but August's national median held at $429,100 and the Midwest median rose 3.3% to $340,400. Rates are changing how many deals close, not what property is worth.
What is an assumable mortgage and can I get one in North Dakota?
It is a seller's existing loan, often FHA or VA, that a qualified buyer takes over at the original rate. They exist in western North Dakota, but you usually need cash to cover the seller's equity. ProvenAssumptions.com lists the ones available now.
Should I wait to buy or sell until rates drop?
Only if waiting fits your life. Prices are not falling, so waiting mostly trades a higher rate today for a possibly higher price later. If the numbers work at today's payment, I would not sit out a good property.
September handed us a rate hike and an oil rally in the same month, and both will make noise this winter. The ground under this market is wells, crews and people who need a place to live and work, and that ground just hit a record. Buy on your base, not on the barrel, and I will write again next month with what moved.
EP
Proven Realty brokered by eXp
Would an assumable loan change your numbers?
See the assumable listings in western North Dakota, or tell me your situation and I will tell you what I would do.
Search assumable listings
