Updated November 2026
Mortgage rates have now fallen three weeks in a row, with the 30-year fixed averaging 7.18% on November 5, 2026, but that is still nearly a full point above the 6.22% buyers had a year ago. My honest take for Western North Dakota: if you have found the right property and your payment works today, waiting for December's Fed meeting is a gamble, not a plan.
In Williston and Watford City, the bigger swing factor this winter is not a few hundredths of a point on rates. It is that oil-field hiring keeps buyers in our market even when national sales slow, so the negotiating window I see right now may not last into spring.
What are mortgage rates right now, and are they actually coming down?
According to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.18% as of November 5, 2026, down from 7.24% the week before. That is the third straight weekly decline. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.57%.
So yes, they are drifting lower. But look at the year-over-year picture before you celebrate. A year ago the 30-year sat at 6.22% and the 15-year at 5.50%. Rates have climbed meaningfully across 2026, and three soft weeks do not erase that.
| Freddie Mac PMMS | 30-Year Fixed | 15-Year Fixed |
|---|---|---|
| Early November 2025 | 6.22% | 5.50% |
| Week of October 29, 2026 | 7.24% | 6.60% |
| November 5, 2026 | 7.18% | 6.57% |
On a $300,000 loan, principal and interest at 7.18% runs about $2,032 a month versus about $1,841 at last year's 6.22%. That roughly $190 gap is real money, but the week-to-week drop from 7.24% to 7.18% is worth only about $12 a month. Do not let a $12 move drive a $300,000 decision.
Will the Fed cut rates in December, and should I wait for it?
On October 28, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4%. The vote was 10 to 2, and here is the part most headlines skipped: the two dissenters wanted to raise rates, not cut them. The statement says inflation "remains elevated" while the economy is "expanding at a strong pace."
That is not the language of a Fed getting ready to slash. The next meeting is December 8 and 9. It could go either way, and mortgage rates do not move in lockstep with the Fed anyway. They track the bond market, which is already pricing in what it expects.
I have been licensed since 2015, and I have watched a lot of buyers wait for "one more rate drop" and end up paying more because the property they wanted sold to someone who did not wait. If the Fed surprises everyone in December, you can refinance later. You cannot go back and buy the house that already closed.
Plan around the payment you can carry today. Treat any future rate drop as a refinance bonus, not as the reason the deal works.
Some North Dakota sellers have FHA, VA, or USDA loans locked well below today's 7.18%, and a buyer may be able to take that rate over. A 3% assumable on a $300,000 balance runs about $1,265 a month in principal and interest, roughly $767 less than a new loan at today's average.
Search assumable-loan properties in North Dakota at ProvenAssumptions.com
Why are home sales slowing nationally, and does that happen in Williston too?
Nationally, the slowdown is real. The National Association of REALTORS reports pending home sales fell 7.3% in September and were down 11.3% from a year earlier, with NAR's chief economist blaming "fast-rising mortgage rates." Existing-home sales ran at 3.99 million, inventory rose to 1.60 million homes, and months' supply is at its highest since 2015.
Western North Dakota does not run on the national script. Our market moves with the Bakken, and the oil field is busy. The state's Department of Mineral Resources counted 34 active rigs in mid-October, up from 24 in August. When crews and operators add people, those people need somewhere to live and somewhere to park equipment.
At Proven Realty, what we are seeing is a split market: buyers with solid pre-approvals have more room to negotiate than they did in spring, while sellers who price to today's rates are still getting offers. I break down the bigger drivers in what is driving North Dakota property prices.
Buyers: you likely have more leverage this winter than you will in April, when relocating oil-field families and spring buyers return. Sellers: price for a 7% world, not a 3% one.
So should I buy now or wait until rates drop?
Here is the framework I give clients who ask me this every week:
- Buy now if you plan to stay three or more years, the payment fits your budget at today's rate, and you have found a property that fits. Winter buyers in Williston usually face fewer competing offers.
- Look at assumables first if your budget only works below 7%. That is the one place you can get a lower rate without waiting on the Fed.
- Wait if your job is uncertain, you may leave the area within two years, or the payment only works if rates fall. Renting another season is a perfectly good call in that situation.
This applies beyond houses. Investors running numbers on a rental, or an operator eyeing a shop or commercial building, should underwrite at today's financing cost. If the deal only pencils at 6%, it is not a deal yet. For the full step-by-step on the purchase process, start with my guide on how to buy a property in North Dakota, and for the year-long rate story, see mortgage rates in 2026.
Our team at Proven Realty has closed over $440 million in Western North Dakota real estate since 2019, and the rule has held at every price point: the buyers who do best are not the ones who timed the rate perfectly. They are the ones who bought the right property at a payment they could live with.
Mortgage rate questions I am hearing this month
What is the current 30-year mortgage rate in November 2026?
Freddie Mac's survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.18% on November 5, 2026. Your actual quote depends on credit score, down payment, loan type, and points, so get a personalized quote from a local lender.
Did the Fed cut rates in October 2026?
No. The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4% on October 28, 2026. Two voting members actually preferred a quarter-point increase.
When is the next Fed meeting?
December 8 and 9, 2026. Mortgage rates often move before the meeting based on what bond markets expect, so do not assume a decision that day changes your rate overnight.
Is it a good time to buy a house in Williston, ND?
For buyers with stable income who plan to stay several years, winter is often the best negotiating window of the year here. Fewer buyers are shopping, and sellers listing in November and December are usually motivated.
How much does a 1% rate difference change my payment?
On a $300,000, 30-year loan, going from 6.22% to 7.18% adds about $190 a month in principal and interest. Taxes, insurance, and any mortgage insurance come on top of that.
Can I get a lower rate than 7% in North Dakota right now?
Possibly, through an assumable FHA, VA, or USDA loan, where the buyer takes over the seller's existing rate. Buying points or using a 15-year term can also lower the rate if the higher payment fits.
Should I refinance later if rates fall?
If rates drop enough to cover closing costs within a reasonable payback period, yes. Many buyers who purchased in 2023 did exactly that. Just do not count on it in your budget today.
Rates are easing, but the Fed is not in a hurry, and the Bakken keeps people coming to Western North Dakota either way. If the payment works and the property is right, this winter is a better time to negotiate than most buyers realize.
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Want to see what a lower rate could look like on a real property?
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