The election results do not change your mortgage rate or the homes for sale on your street. And in Williston, waiting has been expensive. Rates sit at 7.24%, but the same Williston homes have gained value every year since 2019, and a buyer who waited from 2024 to 2026 paid $49,032 more for the average home.
From the desk of Erik Peterson
Friends, clients and partners,
All month I have heard the same sentence from buyers, sellers and even a few of our own agents: "We're going to wait until after the election." Add a 30-year rate north of 7% and a Fed that raised rates in September, and a lot of people pumped the brakes in October.
I understand it. When the headlines are loud, doing nothing feels safe. But in 27 years of buying real estate and 15 years as a financial advisor before that, I have learned that waiting is also a decision, and it has a cost. After more than 1,400 closings in this market, I would rather show you the numbers than tell you how to feel. So that is what this letter does.
Election Results: What They Mean for You
The polls have closed and the results are in. Whichever way they landed for you, here is what I want you to keep in mind.
- Election-year pauses are normal and temporary. Home sales dip a bit more than usual in the month before Election Day, then recover. After presidential elections, home sales rose the following year 82% of the time. The delayed deals do not disappear. They get pushed into the months that follow.
- The big housing law already passed. The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act became law July 11, 2026, after clearing the Senate 85-5 and the House 358-32. It stops corporate landlords that own 350 or more homes from buying more and nudges federal dollars toward communities that build. A Clever Real Estate survey found most Americans do not realize it passed, and 63% do not expect the midterms to help housing.
- Congress does not set mortgage rates. Rates follow the bond market, inflation and the Fed. Housing policy moves slowly. A single development can take longer than an elected official's term.
No result this week changes the rate on your loan Monday morning or the number of properties for sale on your street. Your timeline, your budget and your local market do.
Are mortgage rates too high to buy right now?
Higher than we hoped, but better than history. The 30-year fixed averaged 7.24% on October 29, down from 7.40% two weeks earlier, per Freddie Mac. That is the lowest reading of October, but still more than a full point above a year ago.
| Benchmark | 30-Year Fixed |
|---|---|
| Today (Oct 29, 2026) | 7.24% |
| October 2026 high (Oct 8 and 15) | 7.40% |
| One year ago (Oct 30, 2025) | 6.17% |
| 50-year average | 7.68% |
| 2008 to 2021 average | 4.15% |
The Fed raised its benchmark to 3.75% to 4.00% in September, then held on October 28 in a 10-2 vote, with futures pricing roughly an 85% chance of another quarter-point hike in December. Bond yields have stayed elevated with inflation pressure and an oil market still rattled by the conflict with Iran. If you want the full picture, I break it down in my 2026 mortgage rate guide.
Here is what it actually costs you. On a $300,000 loan, principal and interest runs $2,044.49 a month at 7.24%, versus $1,831.57 at last year's 6.17%. That is $212.92 a month. Real money, but not the difference between owning and renting for most families we work with.
And here is what it does not mean. J.P. Morgan's David Kelly points out that today's rate sits below the 50-year average, and that the sub-5% decade was the anomaly, not the norm. He sees little reason for rates to fall much below 7% without a recession.
If you are waiting for 5%, you may be waiting for a recession, and that brings its own problems for jobs and prices. Buy the right property at the right price now. If rates drop later, refinance.
Who actually wins when the market pauses?
When most people sit still, the few who move get the better terms. Nationally, Realtor.com economists say prices are softening, inventory is growing and the market is tipping toward buyers. Here is how I would play it depending on what you own or want to own.
| If you are a... | The pause gives you | Your move |
|---|---|---|
| Buyer | Less competition, more room to negotiate price, repairs and seller-paid closing costs | Get pre-approved now, buy at the right price, refinance if rates drop later |
| Seller | Fewer showings but more serious buyers | Price to today's market, not last spring's, and offer a rate buydown to widen your buyer pool |
| Investor | Motivated sellers and less competition from big funds | Underwrite at today's rate; if it cash flows at 7.24%, it is a deal |
| Commercial, shop or land buyer | Fewer competing offers on buildings, shops and acreage | If the property works for your business at today's rate, waiting only adds risk |
Investors are already reading it this way. Realtor.com's 2026 Investor Report found small investors owning 1 to 10 properties made up 66.2% of investor home purchases in the first half of 2026, their highest share in more than 15 years, while the largest investors sold more than they bought. The new federal cap on big landlords only tilts that further toward local, individual buyers. If this is your first purchase, start with my step-by-step guide to buying property in North Dakota.
Are Williston home prices still going up?
Yes. National headlines are written about Phoenix and Atlanta. Williston, Watford City and Dickinson run on a different engine, and right now that engine is running.
- The Bakken is producing. North Dakota pumped 1,161,000 barrels a day in August, and the state regulator said operators are speeding up well completions as prices rise.
- Retail is betting on Williston. Target and Chick-fil-A are both coming to Williston Square, the chain's first location in western North Dakota. I wrote about what Target means for nearby owners in my Williston Target post.
- Data centers are coming. Project Fighting Pike, a proposed 455MW campus north of town, is valued at roughly $7 billion, with the Nakota AI Data Campus and a second proposed data center adding to the pipeline.
- Healthcare is here. The new health center at Williston State College is open.
Our thesis at Proven Realty has not changed: buy on your base, not on the barrel. Oil gives this region its upside. Jobs, retail, healthcare and new industries give it a floor.
The proof is in the resales. John Hennessey tracked 8,217 Williston sales on the GNMLS, including 2,549 homes that sold more than once at least three years apart. The same homes gained value every single year from 2019 through 2026, and the average sold price is up 47.0%.
Data compliments of John Hennessey · GNMLS 1-4 unit sales, Williston ND, excludes manufactured homes · effective 10/31/2026
Even 2022, the one year the average sale price dipped, still showed 5.1% annual growth on homes that resold. The mix of homes that sold changed, but on average, homes that resold kept gaining value.
Now put that next to the rate math. A buyer who waited from 2024 to 2026 paid $49,032 more for the average Williston home. That is more than 19 years of the $212.92 monthly payment difference between today's rate and last year's. History is not a guarantee, but it is the best evidence we have.
Local market snapshot (Altos Research, single-family homes, as of Nov. 4, 2026)
| Market | Median List Price | Active Listings | Days on Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Williston | $485,000 | 60 | 74 |
| Watford City | $455,000 | 25 | 77 |
| Dickinson | $377,450 | 78 | 70 |
All three markets sit between 32 and 37 on Altos' Market Action Index, where anything above 30 still leans slightly toward sellers. Nationally the market is tipping toward buyers; here, properties priced right are still moving.
If you are sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to fall, the market has not been waiting with you. In Williston, the better price was last year.
What happened at Proven Realty in October?
A few things from my month that I want you to know about.
- On stage at eXpcon. On October 9 in Salt Lake City, I joined the "Winning WITH and AS an Investor" panel. My message: build wealth one property at a time, and expect your agent to underwrite a deal, not just unlock the door.
- New leadership at the top. Leo Pareja, who led eXp Realty, became CEO of AGNT, eXp's parent company, on October 8, with founder Glenn Sanford moving to Chairman. His focus on technology, AI and growth means more tools behind every Proven Realty listing.
- The team by the numbers. In October our team closed 12 transactions totaling $4,958,650. Year to date, that is 184 closings and more than $73 million in volume. Thank you to every client who trusted us with a move this year.
So what should you do now?
The election is a moment. Rates are a cost. Neither one is a strategy. Managing money taught me one lesson that carried straight into real estate: markets reward a plan, not a prediction. Our team has closed over $440 million in Western North Dakota real estate since 2019, through plenty of oil-driven pauses. Every one of them ended. The people who used the pause to get prepared were the ones who won.
If you are thinking about buying, selling or investing in the next year, let's sit down and run your real numbers. No pressure, just a plan. I'll write again in December.
Talk soon,
Erik
Erik Peterson
Broker/Owner, Proven Realty brokered by eXp
(701) 369-3949 · Erik@ProvenRealtyND.com
P.S. If you want the longer version of how I think about all this, I sat down for a long-form interview on my move from financial advising into real estate, NNN leases and buying a first commercial building. It is worth the watch.
Questions I hear most right now
Do the 2026 election results change whether I should buy a home in North Dakota?
No. The results do not set your mortgage rate or local inventory. Election-year slowdowns are short, and the deals that paused tend to come back in the months that follow, so your own timeline and budget should drive the decision.
What are mortgage rates in November 2026?
The 30-year fixed averaged 7.24% on October 29, 2026, according to Freddie Mac. That is down from 7.40% earlier in October but up from 6.17% a year earlier, and still below the 50-year average of 7.68%.
Will mortgage rates drop back to 5%?
Probably not soon. J.P. Morgan's David Kelly sees little reason for rates to fall much below 7% without a recession, and the sub-5% decade from 2008 to 2021 was the exception. Buying now and refinancing later is usually a better plan than waiting.
Are home prices in Williston, ND still going up?
Yes. Homes that resold in Williston gained value every year from 2019 through 2026, and the average sold price rose 47.0% from $270,169 to $397,149, based on John Hennessey's GNMLS data.
Is Western North Dakota a buyer's or seller's market?
Slightly a seller's market. Williston, Watford City and Dickinson all score between 32 and 37 on Altos' Market Action Index as of November 4, 2026, just above the line of 30 that separates the two. Buyers still have room to negotiate on properties that sit.
How much more does a 7.24% rate cost per month?
On a $300,000 loan, principal and interest is $2,044.49 a month at 7.24%, versus $1,831.57 at 6.17%. That is $212.92 more per month, far less than the $49,032 the average Williston home rose from 2024 to 2026.
What does the ROAD to Housing Act mean for local buyers?
It became law July 11, 2026, and stops corporate landlords that own 350 or more homes from buying more. That shifts competition toward local and individual buyers and investors, who already made up a record share of investor purchases this year.
Ready to run your real numbers?
Tell me what you are thinking about buying, selling or investing in, and I will tell you what I would do.
Request your strategy call
Erik Peterson is the broker/owner of Proven Realty, brokered by eXp Realty, in Williston, North Dakota. He is a 2024 Crexi Platinum Broker, and his team has been named Williston Herald Best of the Bakken in 2023, 2024 and 2025. Erik works across residential, commercial, industrial and land transactions throughout Western North Dakota.
(701) 369-3949 · Erik@ProvenRealtyND.com · 3210 27th St. W Suite 207, Williston, ND 58801
Figures drawn from Freddie Mac PMMS (Oct 29, 2026), Altos Research (Nov 4, 2026), John Hennessey's GNMLS resale analysis (effective 10/31/2026), Realtor.com, Clever Real Estate and Proven Realty transaction records. Payment examples are principal and interest only. Verify specifics before acting. Equal Housing Opportunity.
